THE WEEK IN REVIEW
Short-term Treasury yields rose moderately while long-term Treasury yields dropped moderately over the course of last week, while equities
ended the week down with the S&P 500 dropping 1.42%. Global monetary policy developments and increased trade tensions between the United
States and China were once again at the heart of market movements.
On Monday, Germany suggested it may uses fiscal stimulus if its economy slows. Later that week, a 30-Year German Bund auction produced
negative interest rates, raising concerns over global GDP. Stateside, President Trump called for the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive with
interest rate cuts and advocated for payroll tax cuts. The Fed’s minutes from the July meeting were released and suggested that the central bank
was not ready to commit to additional rate cuts. The market-implied probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting on September 18 remained
at 100% last week, but the probability of the Fed cutting the upper bound of interest rates from 2.25 to 1.75 decreased from 33% to 17%. In trade
news, China’s finance ministry said it would impose additional tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods and President Trump responded with several
harsh tweets aimed at China threatening additional U.S. tariffs, while urging U.S. businesses to leave China.
Despite the global backdrop, U.S. economic reports continue to be solid. Initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, and home sales all were
reported as expected. The Leading Indicator Index beat expectations for July with a 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, June’s leading indicator was revised
from -0.3% up to -0.1%. Finally, earnings season for the second quarter wound down. Thus far, of the 482 companies in the S&P 500 that have
reported, 73.9% have reported earnings above analyst expectations and year-over-year earnings are now expected to be up 3.2% for the quarter.
THE WEEK AHEAD
| Key Economic Reports | |||
| June Case-Shiller Home Index expected: 2.7%; prior: 2.4% | July Durable Goods expected: 1.2%; prior: 1.8% | July Personal Spending expected: 0.5%; prior: 0.3% | August Chicago PMI expected: 48.2; prior: 44.4 |
| Q2 GDP – second est. expected: 2.0%; prior: 2.1% | July Durables – ex-transport expected: 0.1%; prior: 0.8% | July PCE Price Index expected: 0.2%; prior: 0.1% | August Consumer Confidence expected: 129.6; prior: 135.7 |
| Q2 GDP Deflator – second est. expected: 2.4%; prior: 2.4% | July Personal Income expected: 0.3%; prior: 0.4% | July PCE Index – core expected: 0.2%; prior: 0.2% |
VITAL SIGNS
| Equities | Close | Week | YTD | 1 Year | 5 Year | Key Rates | |
| S&P 500 | 2,847 | -1.42% | 15.08% | 1.69% | 9.67% | Fed Funds | 2.25 – 2.50% |
| Russell Mid Cap Index | -1.40% | 16.73% | -0.60% | 7.64% | LIBOR (1 Month) | 2.14% | |
| Russell 2000 | -2.27% | 9.17% | -13.78% | 6.15% | LIBOR (1 Year) | 2.03% | |
| MSCI EAFE | 0.86% | 8.68% | -3.37% | 1.83% | Money Market Accounts | 1.24% | |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.37% | 2.72% | -4.71% | 0.25% | CPI – Headline | 1.60% | |
| Wilshire U.S. REIT | -0.88% | 21.56% | 11.58% | 7.98% | CPI – Core | 2.10% | |
| Equities | Week | YTD | 1 Year | 5 Year | |||
| Barclays U.S. Aggregate | 0.08% | 8.87% | 9.78% | 3.38% | 2 Year T-Note | 1.53% | |
| Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield | 0.72% | 10.46% | 6.17% | 4.78% | 5 Year T-Note | 1.42% | |
| Barclays Municipal 1-10 Blend | -0.15% | 5.55% | 6.65% | 2.74% | 10 Year T-Note | 1.54% | |
| JPM GBI Global Ex-U.S. | 0.02% | 7.05% | 7.70% | 0.91% | 30 Year T-Bond | 2.03% | |
| JPM EMBI Global Diversified | 0.17% | 12.93% | 12.44% | 5.46% | 30 Year Mortgage | 3.75% | |
| Commodities | Close | Week | YTD | 1 Year | 5 Year | ||
| Gold | 1,537.6 | 10.92% | 19.84% | 26.73% | 3.64% | Prime Rate | 5.25% |
| Oil | 54.17 | -1.28% | 19.50% | -21.17% | -10.56% | Bond Buyer 40 | 3.55% |
Sources: briefing.com, Yahoo Finance, Kitco.com, U.S. EIA, First Trust, Wintrust Wealth Management analysis. Returns are total returns calculated through 8/23/2019
and 5 year returns are annualized. Gold is the New York spot price in $/oz. Oil is the Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB in $/BBL. Securities, insurance products, financial
planning, and investment management services are offered through Wintrust Investments, LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC), founded in 1931. Trust and asset management
services offered by The Chicago Trust Company, N.A. and Great Lakes Advisors, LLC, respectively. ©2019 Wintrust Wealth Management
Investment products such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds are:
NOT FDIC INSURED , NOT BANK GUARANTEED , MAY LOSE VALUE , NOT A DEPOSIT , NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY
